Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, vol. 15, no. 4

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Vol. 15 No. 4 (2021): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

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Submitted
May 11, 2021
Accepted
Jul 12, 2021
Published
Sep 17, 2021
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Housing Price Forecasting in Selected Polish Cities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2021.15.4.59
Mirosław Bełej
University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Department of Spatial Analysis and Real Estate Market, Olsztyn, Poland
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8650-6990

Corresponding Author(s) : Mirosław Bełej

miroslaw.belej@uwm.edu.pl

Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 15 No. 4 (2021): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a combined supply and demand shock to the financial and housing market but also an unusual negative shock in terms of the health of society (households) and national economy. The fall in housing demand was initially assumed together with price decreases as a consequence of the uncertainty of the health of society, significant falls in stock markets and corporate solvency. However, the results of research in selected Polish cities do not indicate such a significant market recession. This article examines the housing price dynamics and forecasting in Polish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TRAMO/SEATS and ARIMA models were used for the decomposition and forecasting of dwelling time series. The Polish housing market, represented by selected local housing markets, still shows a growing trend despite the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020. The housing market may slow down in 2021, but the strong forecasted growth trends in Warszawa and Poznań suggest that there will be no significant price decline in Poland in the near future.

Keywords

housing market housing price dynamics COVID-19 pandemic
Bełej, M. (2021). Housing Price Forecasting in Selected Polish Cities During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, 15(4), 59–80. https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2021.15.4.59
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