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Drought Assessment and Forecasting according to the Köppen–Geiger Climate Classification Using GRACE and MERRA Observations
Corresponding Author(s) : Monika Biryło
Geomatics and Environmental Engineering,
Vol. 20 No. 3 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering
Abstract
Prolonged and recurrent droughts are a problem of the 21st century. Agriculture, grazing, fires, logging, and mining make soil susceptible to permanent degradation. However, well-managed land can recover from long drought cycles. Because drought is increasingly affecting larger areas, continuous monitoring and risk assessment are essential. Satellite-based models provide global observations of the Earth and enable their assessment using indices, thereby supporting the classification of the examined areas. In this study, the Combined Climatological Deviation Index (CCDI) and the Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI) were calculated to evaluate drought sensitivity in Europe, within its climatic zones according to the Köppen–Geiger classification. Based on the research, it was concluded that almost all areas show a tendency towards drying, and the predictions indicate that the current drought conditions and their pace will continue. The CCDI and WSDI are very useful in studies of drought in Europe.
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- Dregne H., Kassas M., Rozanov B.: A new assessment of the world status of desertification. Desertification Control Bulletin, no. 20, 1991, pp. 6–18.
- Sterk G., Stoorvogel J.J.: Desertification–scientific versus political realities. Land, vol. 9(5), 2020, 156. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9050156.
- Nandgude N., Singh T.P., Nandgude S., Tiwari S.: Drought prediction: A comprehensive review of different drought prediction models and adopted technologies. Sustainability, vol. 15(15), 2023, 11684. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511684.
- An W., Xu C., Marković S.B., Sun S., Sun Y., Gavrilov M.B., Govedar Z., Hao Q., Guo Z.: Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated droughts in southern Europe since the 1850s. Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 4, 2023, 232. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00907-1.
- Naumann G., Cammalleri C., Mentaschi L., Feyen L.: Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, 2021, pp. 485–491. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3.
- Ionita M., Nagavciuc V., Scholz P., Dima M.: Long-term drought intensification over Europe driven by the weakening trend of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 42, 2022, 101176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101176.
- Bakke S.J., Ionita M., Tallaksen L.M.: The 2018 northern European hydrological drought and its drivers in a historical perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 24(11), 2020, pp. 5621–5653. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020.
- Barker L.J., Hannaford J., Chiverton A., Svensson C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 20(6), 2016, pp. 2483–2505. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016.
- Hirschi M., Seneviratne S.I.: Basin-scale water-balance dataset (BSWB): An update. Earth System Science Data, vol. 9(1), 2017, pp. 251–258. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-251-2017.
- Humphrey V., Rodell M., Eicker A.: Using satellite-based terrestrial water storage data: A review. Surveys in Geophysics, vol. 44(5), 2023, pp. 1489–1517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-022-09754-9.
- Yu Q., Wang S., He H., Yang K., Ma L., Li J.: Reconstructing GRACE-like TWS anomalies for the Canadian landmass using deep learning and land surface model. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 102, 2021, 102404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2021.102404.
- Becker M., Papa F., Frappart F., Alsdorf D., Calmant S., Da Silva J.S., Prigent C., Seyler F.: Satellite-based estimates of surface water dynamics in the Congo River Basin. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 66, 2018, pp. 196–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.11.015.
- Heimhuber V., Tulbure M.G., Broich M., Xie Z., Hurriyet M.: The role of GRACE total water storage anomalies, streamflow and rainfall in stream salinity trends across Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin during and post the Millennium Drought. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 83, 2019, 101927. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.101927.
- Rzepecka Z., Birylo M., Jerker J., Feifei C., Pietroń J.: Groundwater storage variations across climate zones from southern Poland to Arctic Sweden: Comparing GRACE-GLDAS models with well data. Remote Sensing, vol. 16(12), 2024, 2104. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16122104.
- van der Ent R.J.: A New View on the Hydrological Cycle over Continents. Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands 2014 [Ph.D. thesis]. https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:0ab824ee-6956-4cc3-b530-3245ab4f32be.
- Fallah A., Sungmin O., Orth R.: Climate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycle. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 24(7), 2020, pp. 3725–3735. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020.
- Birylo M., Rzepecka Z., Nastula J.: Assessment of the water budget from GLDAS model, [in:] 2018 Baltic Geodetic Congress: BGC-Geomatics 2018: Proceedings: 21–23 June 2018, Olsztyn, Poland, IEEE, 2018, pp. 86–90. https://doi.org/10.1109/BGC-Geomatics.2018.00022.
- Medrano S.C., Satgé F., Molina-Carpio J., Zolá R.P., Bonnet M.P.: Downscaling daily satellite-based precipitation estimates using MODIS cloud optical and microphysical properties in machine-learning models. Atmosphere, vol. 14(9), 2023, 1349. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091349.
- Lei H., Zhao H., Ao T.: A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multisource precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 26(11), 2022, pp. 2969–2995. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022.
- Baba M.W., Boudhar A., Gascoin S., Hanich L., Marchane A., Chehbouni A.: Assessment of MERRA-2 and ERA5 to model the snow water equivalent in the High Atlas (1981–2019). Water, vol. 13(7), 2021, 890. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070890.
- Sinha D., Sayed T.H., Reager J.T.: Utilizing combined deviations of precipitation and GRACE-based terrestrial water storage as a metric for drought characterization: a case study over major Indian river basins. Journal of Hydrology, vol. 572, 2019, pp. 294–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.053.
- Birylo M., Rzepecka Z.: Remote sensing-based hydro-extremes assessment techniques for small area case study (the case study of Poland). Remote Sensing, vol. 15(21), 2023, 5226. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15215226.
- Thomas B.F., Reager J.T., Famiglietti J.S., Rodell M.: A GRACE-based water storage deficit approach for hydrological drought characterization. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 41(5), 2014, pp. 1537–1545. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059323.
- Birylo M., Rzepecka Z., Kuczynska-Siehien J., Nastula J.: Analysis of water budget prediction accuracy using ARIMA models. Water Science & Technology: Water Supply, vol. 18(3), 2017, pp. 819–830. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2017.156.
- Chase Ch.: Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting (2nd ed.). Wiley, 2013.
- Hyndman R.J., Koehler A.B.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 22(4), 2006, pp. 679–688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.
- Cammalleri C., Arias-Muñoz C., Barbosa P., de Jager A., Magni D., Masante D., Mazzeschi M., McCormick N., Naumann N.G., Spinoni J., Vogt J.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21(2), 2021, pp. 481–495. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021.
- Wilhite D.A., Pulwarty R.S.: Drought and water crises: Lessons learned and the road ahead, [in:] Wilhite D.A. (ed.), Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, CRC Press (Taylor & Francis), Boca Raton 2005, pp. 389–398.
- Stagge J.H., Kingston D.G., Tallaksen L.M., Hannah D.M.: Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe. Scientific Reports, vol. 7, 2017, 14045. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2.
- Dubrovský M., Hayes M., Duce P., Trnka M., Svoboda M., Zara P.: Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region. Regional Environmental Change, vol. 14(5), 2014, pp. 1907–1919. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z.
- Sheffield J., Wood E.F.: Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate Dynamics, vol. 31(1), 2007, pp. 79–105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z.
- Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J.V.: Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity. Global and Planetary Change, vol. 148, 2017, pp. 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013.
- Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J., Barbosa P.: European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach. Global and Planetary Change, vol. 127, 2015, pp. 50–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012.
- Dabrowska-Zielinska K., Malinska A., Bochenek Z., Bartold M., Gurdak R., Paradowski K., Lagiewska M.: Drought model DISS based on the fusion of satellite and meteorological data under variable climatic conditions. Remote Sensing, vol. 12(18), 2020, 2944. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12182944.
- Gessner U., Reinermann S., Asam S., Kuenzer C.: Vegetation stress monitor – assessment of drought and temperature-related effects on vegetation in Germany analyzing MODIS time series over 23 years. Remote Sensing, vol. 15(22), 2023, 5428. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15225428.
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC): EDO Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) (version 4.1.0) [dataset]. 2026. https://doi.org/10.2905/JRC.9QA0Z6R.
- Łągiewska M., Bartold M.: An integrated approach using remote sensing and multicriteria decision analysis to mitigate agricultural drought impact in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, Poland. Remote Sensing, vol. 17(7), 2025, 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17071158.
- Cammalleri C., Arias-Muñoz C., Barbosa P., de Jager A., Magni D., Masante D., Mazzeschi M., McCormick N., Naumann G., Spinoni J., Vogt J.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) as part of the European Drought Observatory (EDO). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21(2), 2021, pp. 481–495. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021.
References
Dregne H., Kassas M., Rozanov B.: A new assessment of the world status of desertification. Desertification Control Bulletin, no. 20, 1991, pp. 6–18.
Sterk G., Stoorvogel J.J.: Desertification–scientific versus political realities. Land, vol. 9(5), 2020, 156. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9050156.
Nandgude N., Singh T.P., Nandgude S., Tiwari S.: Drought prediction: A comprehensive review of different drought prediction models and adopted technologies. Sustainability, vol. 15(15), 2023, 11684. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511684.
An W., Xu C., Marković S.B., Sun S., Sun Y., Gavrilov M.B., Govedar Z., Hao Q., Guo Z.: Anthropogenic warming has exacerbated droughts in southern Europe since the 1850s. Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 4, 2023, 232. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00907-1.
Naumann G., Cammalleri C., Mentaschi L., Feyen L.: Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, 2021, pp. 485–491. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3.
Ionita M., Nagavciuc V., Scholz P., Dima M.: Long-term drought intensification over Europe driven by the weakening trend of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 42, 2022, 101176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101176.
Bakke S.J., Ionita M., Tallaksen L.M.: The 2018 northern European hydrological drought and its drivers in a historical perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 24(11), 2020, pp. 5621–5653. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020.
Barker L.J., Hannaford J., Chiverton A., Svensson C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 20(6), 2016, pp. 2483–2505. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016.
Hirschi M., Seneviratne S.I.: Basin-scale water-balance dataset (BSWB): An update. Earth System Science Data, vol. 9(1), 2017, pp. 251–258. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-251-2017.
Humphrey V., Rodell M., Eicker A.: Using satellite-based terrestrial water storage data: A review. Surveys in Geophysics, vol. 44(5), 2023, pp. 1489–1517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-022-09754-9.
Yu Q., Wang S., He H., Yang K., Ma L., Li J.: Reconstructing GRACE-like TWS anomalies for the Canadian landmass using deep learning and land surface model. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 102, 2021, 102404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2021.102404.
Becker M., Papa F., Frappart F., Alsdorf D., Calmant S., Da Silva J.S., Prigent C., Seyler F.: Satellite-based estimates of surface water dynamics in the Congo River Basin. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 66, 2018, pp. 196–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.11.015.
Heimhuber V., Tulbure M.G., Broich M., Xie Z., Hurriyet M.: The role of GRACE total water storage anomalies, streamflow and rainfall in stream salinity trends across Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin during and post the Millennium Drought. International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, vol. 83, 2019, 101927. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.101927.
Rzepecka Z., Birylo M., Jerker J., Feifei C., Pietroń J.: Groundwater storage variations across climate zones from southern Poland to Arctic Sweden: Comparing GRACE-GLDAS models with well data. Remote Sensing, vol. 16(12), 2024, 2104. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16122104.
van der Ent R.J.: A New View on the Hydrological Cycle over Continents. Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands 2014 [Ph.D. thesis]. https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:0ab824ee-6956-4cc3-b530-3245ab4f32be.
Fallah A., Sungmin O., Orth R.: Climate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycle. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 24(7), 2020, pp. 3725–3735. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020.
Birylo M., Rzepecka Z., Nastula J.: Assessment of the water budget from GLDAS model, [in:] 2018 Baltic Geodetic Congress: BGC-Geomatics 2018: Proceedings: 21–23 June 2018, Olsztyn, Poland, IEEE, 2018, pp. 86–90. https://doi.org/10.1109/BGC-Geomatics.2018.00022.
Medrano S.C., Satgé F., Molina-Carpio J., Zolá R.P., Bonnet M.P.: Downscaling daily satellite-based precipitation estimates using MODIS cloud optical and microphysical properties in machine-learning models. Atmosphere, vol. 14(9), 2023, 1349. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091349.
Lei H., Zhao H., Ao T.: A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multisource precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 26(11), 2022, pp. 2969–2995. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022.
Baba M.W., Boudhar A., Gascoin S., Hanich L., Marchane A., Chehbouni A.: Assessment of MERRA-2 and ERA5 to model the snow water equivalent in the High Atlas (1981–2019). Water, vol. 13(7), 2021, 890. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070890.
Sinha D., Sayed T.H., Reager J.T.: Utilizing combined deviations of precipitation and GRACE-based terrestrial water storage as a metric for drought characterization: a case study over major Indian river basins. Journal of Hydrology, vol. 572, 2019, pp. 294–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.053.
Birylo M., Rzepecka Z.: Remote sensing-based hydro-extremes assessment techniques for small area case study (the case study of Poland). Remote Sensing, vol. 15(21), 2023, 5226. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15215226.
Thomas B.F., Reager J.T., Famiglietti J.S., Rodell M.: A GRACE-based water storage deficit approach for hydrological drought characterization. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 41(5), 2014, pp. 1537–1545. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059323.
Birylo M., Rzepecka Z., Kuczynska-Siehien J., Nastula J.: Analysis of water budget prediction accuracy using ARIMA models. Water Science & Technology: Water Supply, vol. 18(3), 2017, pp. 819–830. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2017.156.
Chase Ch.: Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting (2nd ed.). Wiley, 2013.
Hyndman R.J., Koehler A.B.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 22(4), 2006, pp. 679–688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.
Cammalleri C., Arias-Muñoz C., Barbosa P., de Jager A., Magni D., Masante D., Mazzeschi M., McCormick N., Naumann N.G., Spinoni J., Vogt J.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21(2), 2021, pp. 481–495. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021.
Wilhite D.A., Pulwarty R.S.: Drought and water crises: Lessons learned and the road ahead, [in:] Wilhite D.A. (ed.), Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues, CRC Press (Taylor & Francis), Boca Raton 2005, pp. 389–398.
Stagge J.H., Kingston D.G., Tallaksen L.M., Hannah D.M.: Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe. Scientific Reports, vol. 7, 2017, 14045. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2.
Dubrovský M., Hayes M., Duce P., Trnka M., Svoboda M., Zara P.: Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region. Regional Environmental Change, vol. 14(5), 2014, pp. 1907–1919. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z.
Sheffield J., Wood E.F.: Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate Dynamics, vol. 31(1), 2007, pp. 79–105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z.
Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J.V.: Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity. Global and Planetary Change, vol. 148, 2017, pp. 113–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013.
Spinoni J., Naumann G., Vogt J., Barbosa P.: European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach. Global and Planetary Change, vol. 127, 2015, pp. 50–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012.
Dabrowska-Zielinska K., Malinska A., Bochenek Z., Bartold M., Gurdak R., Paradowski K., Lagiewska M.: Drought model DISS based on the fusion of satellite and meteorological data under variable climatic conditions. Remote Sensing, vol. 12(18), 2020, 2944. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12182944.
Gessner U., Reinermann S., Asam S., Kuenzer C.: Vegetation stress monitor – assessment of drought and temperature-related effects on vegetation in Germany analyzing MODIS time series over 23 years. Remote Sensing, vol. 15(22), 2023, 5428. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15225428.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC): EDO Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) (version 4.1.0) [dataset]. 2026. https://doi.org/10.2905/JRC.9QA0Z6R.
Łągiewska M., Bartold M.: An integrated approach using remote sensing and multicriteria decision analysis to mitigate agricultural drought impact in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, Poland. Remote Sensing, vol. 17(7), 2025, 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17071158.
Cammalleri C., Arias-Muñoz C., Barbosa P., de Jager A., Magni D., Masante D., Mazzeschi M., McCormick N., Naumann G., Spinoni J., Vogt J.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) as part of the European Drought Observatory (EDO). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21(2), 2021, pp. 481–495. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021.