Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, vol. 20, no. 2

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Vol. 20 No. 2 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

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Submitted
Jul 13, 2025
Accepted
Jan 27, 2026
Published
Mar 21, 2026
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

From Farmland to Cityscape: Urban Growth Simulation in Surkhet Valley, Nepal Using Remote Sensing and CA-Markov Modeling

https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2026.20.2.67
Padam Bahadur Budha
Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP), Dehradun, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1275-3854
Ashutosh Bhardwaj
Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Department, Dehradun, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-5427
Rajesh Bahadur Thapa
International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Lalitpur, Nepal
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4467-0148

Corresponding Author(s) : Padam Bahadur Budha

padambudha88@gmail.com

Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 20 No. 2 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

Urbanization is rapidly transforming the spatial and socioeconomic landscape of many emerging cities in Nepal, yet relatively little research has explored these dynamics outside the Kathmandu Valley. This study applies a cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model to simulate and predict land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Surkhet Valley, the core of Birendranagar Municipality, one of Nepal’s fastest-growing urban centers. Using Landsat imagery from 1999, 2009, and 2019, alongside spatial and socioeconomic factors, the model captures historical LULC transitions and projects future changes for the years 2029, 2039, and 2049. Model validation was conducted against the 2019 classified LULC map, yielding an overall agreement of 80.65% and a standard kappa statistic of 70.31%, confirming the model’s predictive reliability. Results indicate a clear trajectory of urban expansion at the expense of agricultural land. Built-up surfaces is projected to more than double – from 12.43 km² in 2019 to 31.38 km² in 2049, while cultivated land is expected to decline by over 20 km² in the same period. Spatial analysis shows urban growth intensifying around existing centers, highways, and transitional ecotones between forest and cultivation zones. Compared to similar studies in Kathmandu and Biratnagar, Surkhet exhibits a higher normalized rate of urban expansion, highlighting its emerging role in regional development. This research underscores the value of remote sensing and spatial modeling in urban planning and land management. The findings provide essential insights for policymakers to guide sustainable development in Surkhet and other rapidly urbanizing areas across Nepal.

Keywords

GIS-based spatial analysis Karnali Province land cover prediction multicriteria evaluation (MCE) urban planning
Budha, P. B., Bhardwaj, A., & Thapa, R. B. (2026). From Farmland to Cityscape: Urban Growth Simulation in Surkhet Valley, Nepal Using Remote Sensing and CA-Markov Modeling. Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, 20(2), 67–89. https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2026.20.2.67
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Author Biographies

Padam Bahadur Budha, Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP), Dehradun, India

Mr. Budha is a geospatial analyst by profession working in the field for more than 10 years. Currently, he is serving as research head at Nepal Environmental Resources Organization. Besides, he is an educator as a visiting faculty at the Central Department of Environmental Science (CDES), Tribhuvan University, where he teaches fundamentals of remote sensing to graduate students. He had an M.Sc. in environmental science from the same institute and a PGD in Remote Sensing and GIS from the Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP), Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, India. His research focus is on the assessment of land, water, and atmosphere, with a special focus on land cover change and disaster thematic areas.

Ashutosh Bhardwaj, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Department, Dehradun, India

Dr. Ashutosh Bhardwaj is Scientist/Engineer-‘SG’ and Head, Research Project Monitoring Department (RPMD), at Programme Planning and Evaluation Group (PPEG), Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (Indian Space Research Organisation), Dehradun, India. He is a graduate in Civil Engineering from M.R.E.C. (present MNIT), Jaipur; M.Tech. (Remote Sensing) from BIT, Ranchi & PhD from Geomatics Engineering Group, Civil Engineering Department, IIT, Roorkee. He joined ISRO in 2001 after a brief career as a faculty at Dept. of Civil Engg., BITS, Pilani. He has been engaged in industry, teaching and research in Surveying, Photogrammetry, GNSS, Cartography, Remote Sensing and topographic modelling for more than 26 years. He is a Lifetime fellow of the International Society for Development and Sustainability (ISDS, Japan). He has published over 120 research papers in Journals and Conferences. He is a reviewer for many of the standard Journals / Conferences and is contributing to few of them as Editorial Board member also. His team has two Registered Copyrights on the Methods of DEM Assimilation / Fusion techniques. He and his team has received the Best Publication award form Indian Society of Remote Sensing (ISRS) for their publication, “Cause and process mechanism of rockslide triggered flood event in Rishiganga and Dhauliganga River Valleys, Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India using satellite remote sensing and in situ observations”, for the year 2021 (in 2022). 3rd Best paper award was also received from INCA in 2019. He has guided about 100 graduate - post graduate students and a PhD, while has been guiding PhD students under various research projects. He is contributing to various projects / Research as a committee member at various National Institutions through their Project / Doctoral research committees. He has widely contributed to various projects of GOI on remote sensing and Mapping including mapping for TCPO towns, Katra-Quazigund Railway Track, and many others. He has received appreciation from the Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND), Republic of Maldives for rendering expert services for GPS ground control survey in the National Mapping Project (Maldives).

Rajesh Bahadur Thapa, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Lalitpur, Nepal

Dr. Thapa is a Senior Remote Sensing and Geoinformation Specialist at ICIMOD and provides scientific leadership to the Geospatial Solutions Theme and the Science and Data Section of SERVIR-HKH (a joint NASA and USAID partnership) Initiative. His research focusses on monitoring and assessment of terrestrial environments including forest, agriculture, urban, and disasters thematic areas and capacity development. He empowers people to use emerging Earth observation and geospatial technologies for making evidence-based decisions to protect the pulse of the planet. He is an active member of Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Capacity Development Working Group, Life Member of Nepal GIS Society, Nepal RS Society, Robotic Association of Nepal, and general member of many international associations. He has over twenty-five years work experience across various Asian countries including Japan, Thailand, and the HKH region. Prior to joining ICIMOD, he served at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Before JAXA, he was a JSPS Postdoctoral Fellow and Visiting Professor at the University of Tsukuba, Japan. He holds a PhD in Geoenvironmental Science from University of Tsukuba, MSc in Remote Sensing and GIS from Asian Institute of Thailand, and MD in Geography from Tribhuvan University. He serves as editor to many international journals, an active reviewer for 40+ journals, and an active author- one of the highly cited Nepalese authors in his academic discipline. Dr. Thapa has received national/international honours and recognitions. Recently, SERVIR Global recognized his remarkable contributions and unwavering commitment to capacity development for connecting space to village mission and awarded prestigious SERVIR Award of Excellence.

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